|Region||Mix-adjusted asking price||% Change quarter-on-quarter||% Change year-on-year|
The Q4 2021 report, in association with Davy, found that annual asking price inflation rose by 9.7% nationwide, by 7.4% in Dublin and by 10.6% elsewhere around the country.
Meanwhile, quarterly asking price inflation also rose slightly throughout Ireland – by 1.3% nationally, by 1.7% in Dublin, and by 1.1% elsewhere around the country.
This means the mix-adjusted asking price for new sales nationally is now €311,000, while the price in Dublin is €421,000 and elsewhere around the country it is €263,000. Newly listed properties are seen as the most reliable indicator of future price movements.
The author of the report, Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist at Davy, said that the findings of the report painted a grim picture for prospective homebuyers.
“The unwelcome message from this quarter’s MyHome report is that there is little sign of conditions easing. This quarter’s MyHome report shows annual asking price inflation accelerating to 9.7% inQ4 2021. Prices also rose by an uncharacteristically sharp 1.2% in Q4 during the normally quiet winter months. This reflects the market grinding tighter, with the stock of homes listed for sale having fallen to a fresh historic low of just 11,300. In addition, Ireland’s labour market is performing exceptionally well, adding to housing demand.”
“The shortage of stock for sale or rental is most acute outside the capital, Dublin, and is also evident in a marked decline in the average time to sale agreed to just three months nationally.”
He said that the inflation forecast for 2021 and 2022 would likely now be beaten. “We had forecast an 11% rise in Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation through 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. However, RPPI inflation rose by 13.5% in October and so the out-turn for last year is now likely to beat our forecast.”
He added: “Our analysis shows that house prices are now seven times’ average incomes. Even still, Central Bank of Ireland and Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) estimates suggest that the mortgage lending rules have stopped house prices rising by an additional 10-25% over and above existing levels.”
Angela Keegan, Managing Director of MyHome.ie, said: “It is promising to see construction activity has increased for seven months in a row to November, but the stark reality is that we will unfortunately be living with a dysfunctional property market for some time to come.”
She said that supply was far too low to accommodate soaring demand for housing. “We have never seen such a lack of stock on the MyHome.ie website and, given the significant increase in savings among prospective homebuyers, it is doubtful we will see much let-up in demand during 2022. We can only hope that restrictions are not reintroduced as the construction sector needs to be given every opportunity possible to continue to build properties.”
Full details of the report can be found at www.myhome.ie/reports
CHARTERED FINANCIAL ANALYST