House price inflation has surged ahead in the first three months of 2017 making double digit growth for the year more likely according to the latest house price survey from MyHome.ie in association with Davy.
The mix-adjusted price on newly listed properties nationally rose by 5.5% in Q1 while prices in Dublin rose even higher by 6%. Newly listed properties are seen as the most reliable indicator of future price movements.
The mix adjusted asking price for new sales nationally is now €239K, an increase of €12K on the previous quarter while the corresponding figure for Dublin is €347K, an increase of €19K.
As a result of the first quarter increases, national prices are up 9% on the year, while Dublin prices are higher again at 10.2%.
For the entire stock of properties listed for sale on the website prices rose 1.6% nationally and 1.7% in Dublin. The national mix adjusted figure is now €218K while in Dublin its €303K.
The author of the report, Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist at Davy, said Ireland’s strong recovery, the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme, looser credit conditions and the lack of housing supply are likely to combine to make it a frothy year for Irish house price inflation.
“Credit conditions are clearly supporting the market. The average mortgage approved to first-time-buyers in February was €206,500 up by an enormous 15.2% on the year from €179K. This must in part reflect the relaxation of the Central Bank rules, eliminating restrictions on the availability of 90% loan-to-value mortgages.”
“In addition, would be first-time-buyers are now also armed with the ‘Help-to-Buy’ scheme which is likely to push-up the price of newly built homes. Indeed, on price inflation on newly built homes has now accelerated to 12%, well above the 5% rise in the asking price on the stock on second hand homes.”
“While homebuilding activity is clearly stepping up, it is clearly not happening fast enough. The 14,900 homes completed in 2016 was still the lowest number since 1970, excluding the recent past.”
“Having lagged behind the rest of Ireland in 2016, prices in Dublin have found renewed momentum. While the strong economic recovery was always likely to lead to strong price gains nationally in 2017, it appears the ‘Help-to-Buy’ scheme coupled with the loosening of the Central Bank lending rules has added impetus to an already robust market.”
The Managing Director of MyHome.ie Angela Keegan pointed out that the stock of homes listed for sale on MyHome has fallen to a new low of 19,430, down 10% on last year.
“The shortage of supply is particularly acute in Dublin. There are 3,478 properties listed for sale in the capital, down 19% on last year. The lack of supply will only make first-time-buyers ever more desperate, intensifying the competition for the limited number of homes for sale and encouraging would-be buyers to take on higher mortgage debts.”
“The Property Price Register indicates there were 47,399 transactions in 2016, down from 48,932 in 2015. This is the first calendar year since 2012 that transaction volumes have failed to rise, suggesting the lack of housing supply is now holding back the market. However, we estimate that transaction volumes in the first two months of 2017 were up at least 7%, and this is heartening.”
Around the country
Rising prices were also very much in evidence in the country’s main cities. In Cork asking prices were up 8% on the year to €216K while the increase in Cork City was even stronger at 9.3% with the median price now at €235K. Limerick saw one of the sharper prices gains, up almost 15% to €155K. In Limerick city prices rose to €150K.
In Galway asking price inflation was 11.4% with the median price now €195K. In Galway city prices have increased by 12.5% to €225K. In Waterford prices were up 3% on the year to €165K and by 13.6% in the city to €125K.
The price of the most popular house type the 3 bed semi rose in 20 counties was unchanged in 4 and was down in just 2. Connacht saw some of the biggest gains with 3 bed semis in Galway rising by 18%, while they were up 17% in Sligo and 16% in Roscommon.