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Property Report - 2017 - Q3 Q3 2017 Property Report in association with Davy

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Main Findings

  • House prices in Dublin rise 1.6% in Q3, marginal increase around the country
  • Strength of demand means double digit house price inflation likely through 2018
  • Asking prices for newly listed properties in Dublin have jumped almost €40K in the last year
  • Around the country the corresponding figure is €21K
  • Stock on MyHome site down 6.5% year on year to 21,424

While asking prices have continued to rise in Dublin, albeit at a lower rate, asking prices around the country paused for breath in Q3, following a dramatic surge during the summer, according to the latest house price report from

The mix-adjusted price on newly listed properties in Dublin rose by 1.6% in Q3 and is up 11.8% on the year. Nationally prices rose by 0.4% and are up 8.9% year on year.

The mix adjusted asking price for new sales in Dublin is now €366K, an increase of €39K on this time last year. The corresponding figure nationally is €253K, an increase of €21K. Newly listed properties are seen as the most reliable indicator of future price movements.

For the entire stock of properties listed for sale on the website prices rose 1.7% in Dublin and 1.6% nationally. The national mix adjusted figure is now €228K while in Dublin its €319K.

The author of the report, Conall MacCoille, Chief Economist at Davy, said the acceleration in asking prices which began in late 2016 has continued through 2017 and is likely to continue through 2018.

"At the start of the year we predicted double digit growth in house prices for 2017 but due to the strength of asking price inflation in Q3 we are predicting that double digit inflation is also likely to persist through 2018."

"There are a number of reasons why house prices are rising so strongly; these include the lack of supply, the economic recovery and the fact household incomes are now rising by 2-3% per annum. However the key factor driving house prices higher has been the mortgage market. The average loan drawn down by first time buyers in the last quarter was up 9.4% in the year to €200K from €183K in mid 2016. This has meant that leverage on new mortgage loans has increased and with ever more desperate buyers seeking larger loans as they compete for the few properties listed for sale, this trend is set to continue and to ensure inflation remains at double digit level"

No silver bullet for housing crisis

MacCoille said the figures provided a challenging backdrop for the Government heading into Budget 2018.

"Measures to boost supply have had limited results so far. Neither will the crisis be solved by tax incentives or subsidies for the construction sector – that will almost inevitably lead to higher land prices. With limited progress on planning, inadequate land supply and inappropriate constraints on building heights, Ireland’s housing crisis clearly will not be solved in the near future" Mr MacCoille said.

The Managing Director of Angela Keegan said the lack of supply would underpin rising prices for the medium term.

"At the end of Q3 2017 there were just 21,424 properties listed for sale on the MyHome website. This total is down 6.5% on last year and represents just 1.1% of the total housing stock of two million homes. The situation improved slightly in Dublin where the number of properties for sale rose by 3.3% to 4,275. However this is represents an even smaller total of 0.9% of the housing stock in the capital"

"Of course the lack of supply is also reflected in the time it takes to sell a house. The average time to go sale agreed in Q3 was four months, split between 4.6 months outside the capital, but just 3.1 months in Dublin"

"Despite the tightness in the market, transaction volumes are currently running 10% ahead of where they were last year and at this rate will be close to 55,000 transactions. This is a positive development but we are still some way off the 90,000 or so transactions which one would expect to see in a properly functioning market" Ms Keegan concluded.

3 Bed Semi-Detached Asking Prices

3 bed semi-detached asking pricesSource:
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Property Report Team

Conall MacCoille

Conall MacCoille


Davy Research

Angela Keegan

Angela Keegan


Graham Neary

Graham Neary